Planning the Shot

WEBVTT

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All right, golfers, welcome back.

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In this first video, in the process of hitting a good shot, we're going to talk

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about planning

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the shot.

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So planning the shot can be boiled down to one simple question.

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Where do I want to hit my next shot from?

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Now on paper, that seems like obviously I want to be in the hole.

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I want to be as close as possible.

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But sometimes that's, I can't hit it to the hole, so I need to strategize how I

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'm going

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to get there.

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Here's kind of a little flow where a normal hole, I'm going to hit a drive, hit

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an approach

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shot, hit a putt.

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Well, we're going to teach you to start thinking more in these zones and

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probability as opposed

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to, yeah, I just want to hit it right there and then right there.

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It's more of learning to accept what my ranges are and playing kind of a

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statistically smart

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game or more of a conservative game, which gives me the best option for

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shooting lower

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scores.

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So where do I want to play my next shot from?

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Can be boiled down to the three key questions.

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These three core questions are what you ultimately have to have before you

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start walking up

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to the golf ball, which is fully committed to what club am I going to hit,

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which shot

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am I going to hit, and where am I going to aim?

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So for example, on this par four over here, it's a short par four, but there's

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some trouble.

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There's water all down the left side.

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There's a bunker there.

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Do I want to play a shot that could give me somewhere in this zone here?

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Do I want to play a little smart, maybe one club shorter and aim a little bit

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more to

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the right, leaves me a longer shot, but also leaves me a better angle,

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potentially that's

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the right shot.

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Where do I want to really attack it and hit driver off the tee and try to

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challenge

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of these bunkers in this water?

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We're going to talk through how can I strategize to figure out what's the best

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combination

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of shots that I can hit so I can think my way through a hole.

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We'll have a bunch of videos kind of digging through specifics of how we're

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going to do

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that.

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Okay, so in general, when it comes down to what club am I going to hit, which

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is ultimately

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the most important or the biggest first step, there's three big factors and

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then a handful

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of additional factors.

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The three big factors I like my students to think of is do.

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Do on the grass.

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We're playing on the grass.

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It's easy to remember.

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It stands for distance, elevation, wind.

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On every shot, whether it's a tee shot, whether it's a approach shot, we're

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going to figure

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out how far do we want to hit this.

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Am I hitting it uphill, downhill, so that's the elevation or the lie and then

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is the wind

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into me, cross wind, behind me, that's going to factor into what club and how

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far that's

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actually going to play.

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For many golfers, just getting it down to a number I want to hit it, so after I

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've done

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all my calculations, if I hit my eight iron, let's say somewhere between 155

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and 165, I

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might say, okay, this is a 158 shot.

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I'm boiling it down from all that criteria to one specific number.

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But additional factors can build into the equation, such as the lie, both the

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slope as

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well as how thick the grass is or how the ball is sitting in the grass.

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If it's in a divot, if it's in a bunker, if it's in thick rough, that can

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influence how

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the distance that the ball is going to go.

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The landing terrain can influence it, that can influence what shot I want to

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hit based

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on if I'm landing on a down slope and it's going to run or I'm landing into an

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up slope

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and it's going to stop, if I'm landing in a firm area versus a wet area, that

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can impact

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what the ball is going to do when it hits the ground.

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The temperature can change things, now that's more of a like seasonality thing,

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usually

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around October here, all my students could start complaining that they're

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hitting the

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ball shorter, and I remind them that it's probably just gotten colder.

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And usually right around now here in the spring, golfers start talking about

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how they're hitting

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the ball much further, has nothing to do with our technique or our teaching, it

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's the simple

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fact of playing in a warmer versus a colder climate.

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Altitude can have a big impact, but if you're playing in the same courses and

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you're in the

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same area, that's not going to change very much, so that's more of it if you're

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traveling

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to play golf.

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And then we'll talk more about this when we're picking our specific targets.

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But hazards can influence where your landing spot is going to be and where you

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want to

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approach from.

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The last two are kind of more personal to you, which is you need to have at

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least a

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rough idea about your average dispersion with the club that you're planning to

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hit.

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And then what's going on, what's the situation, are you playing in a match, are

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you just playing

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by yourself, are you trying to test some new shots to get ready for a

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tournament down

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the road, the situation can impact what would be the right shot for you in that

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spot.

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But ultimately, golf is a game of risk versus reward or a game of risk

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management.

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So as I showed on that previous slide, these would be three very viable shot

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options.

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The shorter one here has the least amount of risk off the tee, but it leaves

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the longer

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shot on the way in.

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Now we're going to talk about how to kind of think through that, but maybe that

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's fine.

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This one's closer, but it brings in this creek on the left and it brings in the

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bunker if

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I was to flare, if I was to have a bigger miss than my normal distribution.

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And then the driver would carry the most risk off the tee, but potentially

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leave me the

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shortest shot or the least risky shot for my second shot.

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If you're trying to work your way through risk management, I'm going to talk

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through

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two different ways to kind of look through it.

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Here's a few bullet points to kind of help you think through managing the risk.

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One, it helps to know the percentages.

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So I see a lot of amateur golfers try to take on shots that have a very low

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probability

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of success and in doing so, they bring in bigger numbers.

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One of the things that we're going to talk about here is how can you minimize

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doubles

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and triples rather than make more birdies.

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So in general, we're going to favor more of a conservative target, but then

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make an aggressive

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fully committed swing to that target.

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I want you to err on taking fewer risks with your trouble areas.

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So some people are great drivers of the golf ball and struggle with their wed

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ges.

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In that previous scenario, yeah, maybe I can hit a good drive, but if that puts

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me in a

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business situation where I'm currently not real comfortable, that's probably

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not the

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right play.

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Alternatively, some people are really good with their irons and not as good

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with the

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driver.

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So hitting driver on that short par four wouldn't make a whole lot of sense

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either because I'm

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a good iron player.

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I could just hit two iron shots and especially if the second shot is a short

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iron, that probably

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gives me the best statistical chance of shooting the low score.

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And then not every day is equal, some days you got your A game, some days you

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got your

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B game and some days you got your C game where you're just trying to survive.

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Want you to be more conservative and take fewer risks when you have those B and

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C days.

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Here's another system that I like to use when you're thinking about risk

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management.

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So this kind of goes to know the probabilities.

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If you don't know the exact probabilities, that's fine.

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That's the strokes gain stats, but it can be helpful to think of the game in

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terms of

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zones.

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For example, most people are very comfortable on putts less than three feet.

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And once you get into that next zone of kind of a three footer to an eight foot

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er, it's

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kind of better than a coin flip but not a guarantee.

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So that all those putts are somewhat equal.

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Then you get into the next zone of like a nine to 15 footer, the next zone

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being 15

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to 30 feet where I have a chance of making it but not really a great chance of

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making

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it.

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And maybe for you, that's more of a 20 to 30 foot.

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This is all individual.

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And then outside of 30 feet, I really have a low probability of making it and I

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'm just

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trying to two putt.

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Similarly, we could do that to off the green.

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If you're less than 10 yards off the green, maybe you could putt or hit a

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really simple

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chip shot that you're comfortable with.

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But if you were 20 to 40 yards off the green, that might be a much tougher shot

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.

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It might be a much lower chance of getting up and down.

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You can refer to the benchmarks if you don't know any of your numbers and you

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can compare

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them to your handicap level.

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But we're going to think in terms of these zones when we're doing our risk

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management.

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So for example, we'll see that not all these zones are distributed evenly.

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This happens to be a short par four.

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So this would put me in kind of a 40 to 60 yard shot, but does bring in the

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water as

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well as the bunker, so I might make more big numbers for the chance of making

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birdies.

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Now if my 40 to 50 yard shot is not better than getting up and down, let's say

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one out

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of three, one out of four, tour pros, maybe even one out of two, then the

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number of extra

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bogeys and doubles might not be worth it.

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Where here, I might have a 120 yard shot and I might be pretty good at that

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shot.

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And so the added risk just doesn't outweigh the added benefit.

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Set another way, taken from the benchmarks class or course.

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If we look at just the bottom, the kind of the more common distances inside of

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150 yards,

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you'll see a trend here.

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From 150 yards to 125 yards, there's a 10 foot increase in proximity to the

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hole.

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So that's a pretty big jump.

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If it's minimal risk to go from 150, which might be way back here, to 125, that

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's just

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maybe hitting one or possibly two clubs more and it doesn't really bring in

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extra trouble.

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That's probably worth it to get me the chance of getting 10 feet closer.

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But going from 150 to 100 only takes me from 21 feet to 16 feet.

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That's about half of the improvement in terms of proximity compared to going

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from 150 to

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125.

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So you might have some of these zones that are pretty much the same, like maybe

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you're

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equally good from 75 to 125 as 125 to 150.

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And so there's no real benefit to taking on the extra risk to get into that

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closer shot.

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It's one of the ways that I want to think through the holes and think through

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the scenarios

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when I'm working on this risk management is by thinking in these zones.

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And usually there are some cutoffs for your individual game as to where the

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zones are

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worth the extra risk.

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Okay, so I've factored all that in.

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I pretty much, I'm going to walk through the pre-shot funnel or the pre-shot

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routine.

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And I like the pre-shot funnel better than the pre-shot routine because it kind

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of helps

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you visualize what we're trying to do when we're standing behind the ball

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getting ready

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for a shot.

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When you're standing behind the ball getting ready for a shot, we're factoring

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in our do,

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our distance, our elevation, our wind, and we're looking at those extra factors

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like

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hazards and landing zones and stuff like that.

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And then I'm going to come up with two or three, maybe four options that could

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work for this

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shot.

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And I'm going to boil them down based on my tendency to what my best shot is.

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Now once I get to my best shot and I'm fully committed to it, then I'm ready to

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execute.

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A lot of golfers, when I take them on the course, they're still deciding as

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they walk

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up to the golf ball, and that's naturally going to lead to some indecision.

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That indecision can create some tension points in your swing that disrupts your

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natural kind

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of rhythm and fluidity and prevents you from hitting your best shots.

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So we're going to use this pre-shot funnel behind the ball to get fully

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committed to

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whatever your best shot is in that scenario.

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Now to do it really well, it's helpful to know kind of your tendencies, because

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one

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of the things I'm going to talk about in here is playing your average shot

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versus trying

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to hit your best shot all the time.

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For example, this is hit with my eight irons.

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So these were in the kind of carry zone of 155, close to 158 for most of those.

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There were a few where I left the face open and they came up much shorter and

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one that

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I hit just kind of flush in the center and it went a little bit further, but

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this gives

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me kind of a probability zone of a bunch of what I might expect with my eight

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iron.

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So knowing my dispersion pattern helps me choose what shot to hit, as well as

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my shot

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tendencies.

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So we'll see that on the next slide.

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But this one is pretty evenly distributed left to right around the center line.

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Not all my clubs will be that way.

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It can be helpful to know the strokes gained or know those zones and think of

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it in terms

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of expectations.

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Like it's helpful to know that a tour pro on average is going to average par

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from about

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168 yards in the fairway, which means that if they get closer than that, they

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're more

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likely to make a birdie from there.

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If they're further away, they're more likely to make a bogey, right?

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At 168 is kind of where they would break even.

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So if the risk reward is it's only slightly riskier to get it inside of 168,

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that could

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be worth the risk compared to leaving it back to 180, something like that.

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If you have favorite distances, those are often the zones that I'm trying to

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lay up

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to.

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For example, one of my best rounds ever, I was really good with my three

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quarter nine iron.

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And I happened to be able to lay up to that distance on par fours as well as

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par fives.

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And I had 142 or 141 yards, six times, and I remember I birdied at five out of

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those

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six times because I was just really feeling that distance that week.

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I've got a clip of John Rum when he shot and when he was kind of on a tear, and

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he had

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one of his better rounds that he kept having a hundred yard shot kind of by

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design.

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My wedge game, that was probably the best I've ever had it, you know, there was

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a distance

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today, which was basically a hundred yard feeling shot that I have multiple

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times.

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I had it on, let's say 10, I think I had it on 13, 14, 15, close to one, and on

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five.

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That is six shots, none of them were outside, eight feet, and three of them

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were out so

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the tap ends, one almost went in.

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So when you have favorite distances, if you can hit those more often than not,

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that's

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one way to get lower and more consistent scores.

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So thinking in terms of our average shot versus our best shot, we will continue

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to harp on

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that point.

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I tend to see amateurs gravitate towards hitting a club that they could hit the

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distance required,

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but not necessarily further than that.

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And so that's not really indicating their average shot, they're playing for

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their best

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shot, and that's typically a more aggressive or losing game.

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Alternatively, when we looked at kind of that par four, we'll look more at

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scenarios

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like this, but we can play for angles or we can play for lies.

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Sometimes we want to play for angles, sometimes we want to play for lies, we'll

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talk about

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that when we get into the strategy of par three's, par four's, par five's.

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Playing for the flat lies versus playing for slopes that can vary course to

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course in

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hill to hill or hole to hole.

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And then course-light tendencies, there's one hole, I'm going to do some stuff

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on our

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course here, and there's one hole where the flatter lie tends to not drain very

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well.

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And so it tends to be a little bit more wet, the grass has a harder time

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growing, so you

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get kind of bare shots.

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So potentially the flattest lie is actually one of harder lies to hit from.

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So knowing your course and knowing your tendencies can give you that extra

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advantage,

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but if you're playing the course for the first time, you're not going to know

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those

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things, we're just going to run the dice and play for the more probable shots.

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So knowing your percentages or knowing your tendencies and knowing the

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percentages will

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help you take more aggressively conservative targets.

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Okay, so here I mentioned knowing your tendencies.

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Here I did my nine iron and a punch eight iron, trying to hit them about the

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same distance.

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And you'll see distance-wise, they were pretty good.

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I was actually more consistent distance-wise with the punch eight iron than the

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nine, but

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you'll see I had more misses towards the right side of the target with the

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punch eight compared

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to the full stock nine.

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But then when I got to hitting my five iron, slightly more than 200 yards, you

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'll see

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A, my two kind of bigger misses were one of them was just awful, but I was more

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likely

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to have bad shots other than those two, it was a pretty good dispersion.

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But you'll also see that it's erred more left.

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I have a tendency to pull the long irons right now compared to if I was hitting

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a punch shot

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with my eight iron.

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You don't have to know these tendencies, but the better you know your

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tendencies, the

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more accurate you can get when it comes to aiming.

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Okay, so recap, for planning the shot, where do I want my next shot to be

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played from?

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That's what we're going to work backwards for them.

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We're going to boil that down to what club am I going to hit?

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Which shot am I going to hit with that club and where am I going to aim?

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We want to think in these realistic zones based on averages and we're going to

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think

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through the whole kind of like a puzzle looking at a collection of shots, we're

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going to hit

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not just what's the most aggressive shot that I could hit right now.

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So we're going to decide it while standing behind the ball, working through the

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pre shot

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funnel in the Vision 54, this is taught as the think box, this is where we're

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going to

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do all the planning.

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For planning, there's three big factors, which is distance, elevation, wind,

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but then we're

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going to also factor in things like hazards, altitude, temperature, if those

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are relevant,

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and then your tendencies.

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Once you've run all that through your mental algorithm, you're going to come up

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with your

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best shot and that best shot is what I want you to fully commit to.

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So distance, elevation, wind, ultimately we're going to think about leaving our

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zone in the

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most scoreable or the best, the place that gives us the probability of scoring

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the best.

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If we can do this on consecutive shots, we'll hit our good drive, in play,

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leaving us kind

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of an unobstructed shot, an iron to get on the green and give ourselves a

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chance at

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birdie, hopefully a birdie putt, otherwise an easy part.

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If we fail at one of those skills, that's going to get us more into this

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recovery zone

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golf, and our recovery game is designed to get us back into that flow of easy,

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fun golf.

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Now, not all shots are the same, but the process for hitting a shot is, and one

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of the key steps

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in the process of hitting in the shot is aiming, both the technique of aiming

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as well as how

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do I know where to aim, and so we're going to cover that in the next video.